Australia: Barley crop estimate for 2022 lower at 10.5 mln tonnes
Following a successful barley crop of +13.5 mln tonnes and strong competition from other crops, the Australian crop 2022 estimate is lower at 10.5 mln tonnes, RMI Analytics said in their latest report earlier in April.
According to the analysts, this estimate factors in an about 10% drop in barley area and a return to 5-year yields.
The current moisture profile, particularly on the east coast, is very good and provides the potential for similar yields as achieved in crops 2020 and 2021. For now, the analysts remain somewhat conservative but the potential exists for a crop of 11-11.5 mln tonnes under ideal conditions.
The weather is also having an impact on execution of export shipments (wheat, canola, and barley) which will have a further impact on availability of terminal capacity as current shipments are becoming backlogged. Shipping slots are virtually non-existent before August-September 2022.
Australian barley prices are higher during this reporting period, but still this region remains the world’s most competitive. It remains very difficult to find open terminal capacity for barley exports as wheat/canola shipping remains very strong.
Feed barley prices are feeling some pressure from feed wheat (India) in export trade. At the same time farmer interest in selling is low and this not much new trade and the market continues to focus on executing existing business.
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